Stochastic order book modelling

This thesis presents some aspects of stochastic order book modelling. In the first part, we analyze a model in which order arrivals are independent Poisson. We show that the order book is stable (in the sense of Markov chains) and that it converges to its stationary state exponentially fast. We deduce that the price generated in this setting converges to a Brownian motion at large time scales. We illustrate the results numerically and compare them to market data. In the second part, we generalize the results to a setting in which arrival times are governed by self and mutually existing processes. The last part is more applied and deals with the identification of a realistic multivariate model from the order flow. We describe two approaches: the first based on maximum likelihood estimation and the second on the covariance density function, and obtain a remarkable agreement with the data. We apply the estimated model to two specific algorithmic trading problems, namely the measurement of the execution probability of a limit order and its cost.

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Additional Info

Field Value
Source https://theses.hal.science/tel-00997433
Author Jedidi, Aymen
Maintainer CCSD
Last Updated May 5, 2026, 10:04 (UTC)
Created May 5, 2026, 10:04 (UTC)
Identifier NNT: 2014ECAP0001
Language en
Rights https://about.hal.science/hal-authorisation-v1/
contributor Mathématiques Appliquées aux Systèmes - EA 4037 (MAS) ; École centrale Paris
creator Jedidi, Aymen
date 2014-01-09T00:00:00
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harvest_source_id 3374d638-d20b-4672-ba96-a23232d55657
harvest_source_title test moissonnage SELUNE
metadata_modified 2026-03-31T00:00:00
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