Movements networks in epidemiological models: integration, analysis and application to commuting movements in France

Transportation networks have a major influence on the interactions between people. The worldwide diffusion of some disease, like HIV, SARS, H1N1 or MRSA has for instance been eased by the recent increases in the velocity of transportation means and the frequency of movements. In this context, it is of crucial importance to develop theoretical tools to understand the influence of human mobility on infectious disease propagation. During this thesis, we have performed at first a systematic review of the use of population movements in models of epidemic propagation. Then, we focused on the national/regional scale, using commuting movements, and we developed several tools to analyze their influence on the propagation of influenza in France. The first part of this thesis has been dedicated to the systematic review of works on epidemic propagation integrating mobility data. Nowadays, the influence of air travel on disease diffusion has been extensively studied: on national/regional scale however, commuting movements are often integrated in models without justification. In the following of this thesis, we investigated the influence of these movements: the example of influenza propagation in France was used to make this study. We started this work with the calculation of spatial auto-correlation of surveillance data from the Sentinelles network, based on commuting data, in order to confirm they had an influence on influenza propagation. Then, we developed tools based on a metapopulation model, to compare epidemics propagation, thanks to which we showed that both children and adults movements, which are different, should be integrated in models. In this study, we also evidenced the existence of preferential pathways for diffusion, that are followed depending on the seeding district of the epidemic. We then performed an analytical analysis of commuting movements influence by developing a linear model based on the previous one. In this thesis, we propose two tools based on the spectral analysis of the matrix of this model and the study of the vectorial sub-space generated by its dominant eigenvectors: with these tools, we studied the role of each district in the propagation on one hand and the global dynamics of the model on the other hand. Previous results were confirmed by this second analysis.

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Source https://theses.hal.science/tel-00934932
Author Charaudeau, Ségolène
Maintainer CCSD
Last Updated May 7, 2026, 07:21 (UTC)
Created May 7, 2026, 07:21 (UTC)
Identifier tel-00934932
Language en
Rights https://about.hal.science/hal-authorisation-v1/
contributor ESIM - Déterminants Sociaux de la Santé et du Recours aux Soins (DS3) ; Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)
creator Charaudeau, Ségolène
date 2013-07-26T00:00:00
harvest_object_id 350df252-b4c1-4c32-abd8-302bf92633b3
harvest_source_id 3374d638-d20b-4672-ba96-a23232d55657
harvest_source_title test moissonnage SELUNE
metadata_modified 2022-06-26T00:00:00
set_spec type:THESE