Demand forecasting and flow management in global sourcing

Global Sourcing is becoming a common practice in industrial activities since it offers companies opportunities to improve its competitiveness in an increasingly competitive business environment. At the same time, it makes the flows more complex and the supply chain more fragile. Global Sourcing thus gives rise to a wide range of issues and impacts different levels of decision making. To address such a problem, we focus on tactical and operational decision making. We attempt to answer a variety of questions: What are possible actions for flow management in global sourcing? How to secure the procurement in the current industrial context? Are classical flow management policies also efficient in global sourcing? In collaboration with the industrial partners of the Chaire Supply Chain at Ecole Centrale Paris, we consider different problems. Firstly, we are interested in demand forecasting, an essential element for flow management in global sourcing and proposed a methodology to select an appropriate forecasting method and to update it dynamically. The fact that the lead times are long in global sourcing makes the forecast less reliable and less and less reliable when the forecast horizon increases, which requires an evaluation of the forecast accuracy. We propose a detailed model of the forecast accuracy and its evolution with time horizon involved. As the last step of the work, this forecast accuracy model is applied to a real life flow management problem in global sourcing. The case study carried out based on real life data from PSA demonstrates a clear superiority of the proposed method over existing ones in terms of both service level and inventory level.

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Source https://theses.hal.science/tel-00879853
Author Hubert, Thibault
Maintainer CCSD
Last Updated May 9, 2026, 03:48 (UTC)
Created May 9, 2026, 03:48 (UTC)
Identifier NNT: 2013ECAP0012
Language fr
Rights https://about.hal.science/hal-authorisation-v1/
contributor Laboratoire Génie Industriel - EA 2606 (LGI) ; CentraleSupélec
creator Hubert, Thibault
date 2013-01-30T00:00:00
harvest_object_id f2ebce4d-3a25-438a-b19d-02cc5bdfbbbd
harvest_source_id 3374d638-d20b-4672-ba96-a23232d55657
harvest_source_title test moissonnage SELUNE
metadata_modified 2026-03-31T00:00:00
set_spec type:THESE