Flood risk analysis : impact of uncertainty in hazard modelling and vulnerability assessments on damage estimations

This thesis aims at exploring different sources of uncertainty related to the economic analysis of the flood risk. It embraces several fields of knowledge in order to determine how the selection of strategies used to model flood hazard and assess the vulnerability of a territory may affect damage potential estimations. We measured the variability of damage estimations as a function of the datasets, methods, models and scales considered to: analyse the probability of floods (hydrology); model and map flood hazard (hydraulics); assess the vulnerability and susceptibility of properties to floods (civil engineering, geography and environmental economics). The methods and analyses developed here should bring support for practitioners in the investigation of uncertainties, determination of evaluation priorities and optimisation of the distribution of resources between the different modules of the evaluation process. In order to explore a second level of complexity of flood risk evaluations, we developed a method for analysing the systemic vulnerability of infrastructure networks, in relation with their resilience.

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Source https://theses.hal.science/tel-00821011
Author Eleutério, Julian
Maintainer CCSD
Last Updated May 11, 2026, 04:57 (UTC)
Created May 11, 2026, 04:57 (UTC)
Identifier NNT: 2012STRAB014
Language en
Rights https://about.hal.science/hal-authorisation-v1/
contributor Gestion des services publics (UMR GSP) ; École Nationale du Génie de l'Eau et de l'Environnement de Strasbourg (ENGEES)-Centre national du machinisme agricole, du génie rural, des eaux et forêts (CEMAGREF)
creator Eleutério, Julian
date 2012-11-30T00:00:00
harvest_object_id fe68aada-a4f4-4400-8014-15a957855834
harvest_source_id 3374d638-d20b-4672-ba96-a23232d55657
harvest_source_title test moissonnage SELUNE
metadata_modified 2026-03-31T00:00:00
set_spec type:THESE