Observation and spatial modeling of temperature in the viticultural terroirs of the Loire Valley in the context od Climate change

In the context of Climate Change, the potential impacts for viticultural terroirs pose a number of questions, especially the likely risks (variability in wine characteristics and quality) and implied challenges. This thesis aims to develop a methodology for measuring and modeling the spatial variability in temperature in viticultural terroirs of the Loire Valley, in order to define the current climate and to provide some answers about the future consequences of Climate Change. The temperature trends in the Loire Valley have therefore been analysed since the middle of the 20th century, using the regional weather stations network. The results indicate an increase of temperatures and bioclimatic indices for all the regional stations. Experimentations at local scales have been realized in the viticultural terroirs of the middle-Loire Valley thanks to an important network of weather stations and data loggers. Bioclimatic indices, as the growing-degree days, underline the spatial variability in temperature and show that this variability can sometimes be as significant at fine scale as at larger scales. A multicriteria modeling has been applied on an experimental site in the Coteaux du Layon vineyards and highlights which local factors prevail in the temperature variability. Climatic modeling has been carried out at fine scales in the last stage of this study with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). Downscaled simulations delivered at high resolution (5 km resolution) for the control period (1991-2000) were compared with ARPEGE-Climat simulations (50 km) for a few important months during vine growth. Results showed that RAMS contributed to reducing the large-scale induced bias and gave better simulations of extremes temperatures. The RAMS assimilation of the SRES A2 scenario for the 2041-2050 period projected frost risk to decrease in April but an increase in the frequency of hot days (>30°C) and very hot days (>35°C) during veraison and berry ripening. Finally, extreme weather simulations revealed all the complexity of this kind of modeling, with contrasted results according to the different simulated days

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Source https://theses.hal.science/tel-00815596
Author Bonnefoy, Cyril
Maintainer CCSD
Last Updated May 11, 2026, 09:56 (UTC)
Created May 11, 2026, 09:56 (UTC)
Identifier NNT: 2013REN20015
Language fr
Rights https://about.hal.science/hal-authorisation-v1/
contributor Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique (LETG - Rennes) ; Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique UMR 6554 (LETG) ; Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN) ; Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Université d'Angers (UA)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE) ; Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Brest (UBO EPE)-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Géographie et d'Aménagement Régional de l'Université de Nantes (IGARUN) ; Université de Nantes (UN)-Université de Nantes (UN)-Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN) ; Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Université d'Angers (UA)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE) ; Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Brest (UBO EPE)-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Géographie et d'Aménagement Régional de l'Université de Nantes (IGARUN) ; Université de Nantes (UN)-Université de Nantes (UN)
creator Bonnefoy, Cyril
date 2013-04-12T00:00:00
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harvest_source_id 3374d638-d20b-4672-ba96-a23232d55657
harvest_source_title test moissonnage SELUNE
metadata_modified 2026-04-18T00:00:00
set_spec type:THESE