Aircraft operational reliability - A Model-based approach and case studies

Dependability assessment, by system manufacturer, during aircraft design, based on stochastic modeling, is of common practice, but model based operational dependability assessment online, during missions' achievement, is seldom done. Usually, the stochastic assessment addresses aircraft safety. This thesis addresses aircraft operational dependability modeling to support mission and maintenance planning, as well as the achievement of the missions. We develop a modeling approach, based on a meta-model that is used as a basis i) to structure the information needed to assess aircraft operational reliability and ii) to build a stochastic model that can be updated dynamically. The update concerns the current state of the aircraft system, a mission profile and the maintenance facilities available at the flight stop locations involved in the mission. The aim is to enable operational reliability assessment online. Two case studies, based on aircraft subsystems, are considered for illustration. We present examples of evaluation results that show the valuable role of operational dependability assessment during aircraft mission.