Our main intention is to present the philosophical background of Raymond Aron’s political point of view by way of his theory on historical philosophy. For us, behind his proclamation of a reasonable politics, exists an epistemological support, known as determinism of probability as far as the historical truth is concerned. And this determinism is only possible when it is based on a critique of the speculative philosophy of history. In the book named introduction to a philosophy of history, Aron tries to surpass the antinomy of historical becoming, between total unity of the hegelian-marxiste model and the irreducible plurality of the Oswald Spengler model, and meanwhile without falling into an absolute relativism. More precisely, the historical philosophy of Raymond Aron is dedicated to a two-dimensional constitution. On the epistemological level, he tries to reinterpret the relation between explication and comprehension, by way of circle between these two methods, and aim to, in the end, establish the limit of historical objectivity by introducing a certain determinism of probability; on the ontological level, in order to avoid the relativist conclusion, he keeps the Kantian notion of truth, but in a less teleological and more regulative sense. Correlatively, in the domain of politics, he declines all kind of Messianism who claims to possess in advance the historical truth, because for him, it is only via instant choice and decision based on the liberty that can man creates his history. His liberalism essentially political is different from the neoliberalism, and maintains a conservative attitude towards the tradition. Generally speaking, our research consists of presenting how this determinism of probability is possible, and how Aron applies this philosophical point of view to the political practice, and according to him, what should an intellectual do facing the politics. And we will also discuss his critiques to the idealism of the french intellectual, in order to analyze the debate among the chinese intellectual.
