Contributions to time series analysis: estimation, prediction and extremes

This habilitation manuscript presents my research work on statistics for weakly dependent processes. Asymptotical results for the Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimator in general affine models are given in the first part. To detect stationarity breaks, we suggest to penalize the Quasi Likelihood criteria by the number of breaks. For some volatility models such as EGARCH model, the procedure is not stable and we suggest to constrain the criteria on the continuously invertible domain. Then we consider the one-step prediction of weakly dependent processes, establishing new oracle inequalities. Such non asymptotical results need to assert the gaussian concentration properties of weakly dependent measures. To this aim, we propose a notion of weak transport and new conditional transport inequalities. Finally, we introduce the cluster index to characterize the extremal behavior of regularly varying partial sums. We obtain limit properties such as the $\alpha$-stable limits in the Central Limit Theorem or the large deviations in presence of dependent extremes. Solutions of linear stochastic recurrent equation and the GARCH model are examples of heavy tailed processes. We apply our results to characterize asymptotically the estimation errors of heavy tailed processes autocovariances.

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Source https://theses.hal.science/tel-00757756
Author Wintenberger, Olivier
Maintainer CCSD
Last Updated June 3, 2026, 21:25 (UTC)
Created June 3, 2026, 21:25 (UTC)
Identifier tel-00757756
Language fr
Rights https://about.hal.science/hal-authorisation-v1/
contributor Laboratoire de Finance Assurance (LFA) ; Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique (CREST) ; Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique (Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI)-Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique (Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI)
creator Wintenberger, Olivier
date 2012-11-23T00:00:00
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harvest_source_id 3374d638-d20b-4672-ba96-a23232d55657
harvest_source_title test moissonnage SELUNE
metadata_modified 2026-02-07T00:00:00
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