Seismic and Landslide Hazard in mountain zones : Lesson from 2005 Kashmir Earthquake.

On the last decades, progresses on the understanding of clustering seismicity in time, size and space have been driven by two parallel approaches. From the one hand studies on the mechanics of faulting in an elastic medium argue for the static stress triggering to dominate in the near field, i.e within distance less than 10 fault length. From the other hand, mean field properties of the triggering are reproduced using cascading effects in point process models. In this study we try to reconcile these approaches by emphasizing the importance of faulting style on average properties of seismicity. Starting with the study of the seismicity rate triggered by the Muzaffarabad, Kashmir, 2005 Mw = 7.6, Ms = 7.7 earthquake, which appears as above the average when analysing the aftershocks sequences in the India-Asia collision belt, we resolve the strike slip event productivity to be on average 4 times smaller than the thrust faulting productivity. Using global earthquake catalog, we further extend this result as all the parameters of the Omori law (p, K, α, N (t)) being dependent on faulting styles. Within the ETAS model strong K, N and low α values are driven by high branching ratio (n). As consequences of the relative high n − value of the thrust events, it also predicts a lower p − value for thrust event as compare to strike slip and normal events as the pN > pS S > pT we observe. Within rate and state friction framework it implies a change in stress heterogeneity patterns. We do not resolve any robust changes in foreshocks rate, p′ − value, whereas our analysis allow us to extend B˚aths law in time, space and focal mechanism. For reverse faults, both the magnitude difference and the distance from the mainshock to the largest aftershock are somewhat less than for strike slip faults. The distribution of time intervals between mainshocks and their largest aftershocks is consistent with Omori's law but with a somewhat faster rate of decay than for aftershocks in general. This implies that the largest aftershock is more likely to occurs earlier than later in a given sequence of aftershocks. Moreover, this finding argues for going beyond the branching point model, with implications for short term forecasts. Also we resolve unambiguous dependency of p − value of Omori law to mainshock magnitude for the aftershock within 10 days after the mainshock occurrence, this dependency being lost when using complete cascade sequences. We find this time threshold also corresponds to a change in diffusion patterns, all these changes synchronize with the occurrence of the largest aftershock. Accordingly, our results converge toward the key role of the secondary aftershocks on the mechanics of size, time and space pattern of cascading processes.

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Source https://theses.hal.science/tel-00684242
Author Tahir, Mohammad
Maintainer CCSD
Last Updated May 23, 2026, 00:27 (UTC)
Created May 23, 2026, 00:27 (UTC)
Identifier NNT: 2011GRENU052
Language fr
Rights https://about.hal.science/hal-authorisation-v1/
contributor Institut des Sciences de la Terre (ISTerre) ; Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux (IFSTTAR)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UR219-PRES Université de Grenoble-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
creator Tahir, Mohammad
date 2011-11-21T00:00:00
harvest_object_id 4a0acc21-d13b-4842-acc2-f4193414a742
harvest_source_id 3374d638-d20b-4672-ba96-a23232d55657
harvest_source_title test moissonnage SELUNE
metadata_modified 2026-03-30T00:00:00
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