Trading Volume and Market Efficiency: An Agent Based Model with Heterogenous Knowledge about Fundamentals

This paper studies the effect of investor's bounded rationality on market dynamics. In an order driven market, we consider a few-types model where two risky assets are exchanged. Agents differ by their behavior, knowledge, risk aversion and investment horizon. The investor's demand is defined by a utility maximization under constant absolute risk aversion. Relaxing the assumption of perfect knowledge of the fundamentals enables to identify two components in a bubble. The first one comes from the unperceived fundamental changes due to trader's belief perseverance. The second one is generated by chartist behavior. In all simulations, speculators make the market less efficient and more volatile. They also increase the maximum amount of assets exchanged in the most liquid time step. However, our model is not showing raising average volatility on long term. Concerning the fundamentalists, the unknown fundamental has a stabilization impact on the trading price. The closer the anchor is to the true fundamental value, the more efficient the market is, because the prices change smoothly.

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Source https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00997573
Author Lespagnol, Vivien, Rouchier, Juliette
Maintainer CCSD
Last Updated May 5, 2026, 10:03 (UTC)
Created May 5, 2026, 10:03 (UTC)
Identifier halshs-00997573
Language en
Rights https://about.hal.science/hal-authorisation-v1/
contributor Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille (GREQAM) ; École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-École Centrale de Marseille (ECM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
creator Lespagnol, Vivien
date 2014-05-05T00:00:00
harvest_object_id bd4ddd66-c702-4c66-92a8-afeb7b13f630
harvest_source_id 3374d638-d20b-4672-ba96-a23232d55657
harvest_source_title test moissonnage SELUNE
metadata_modified 2024-03-18T00:00:00
set_spec type:UNDEFINED