Currency Mismatch and Systemic Risk in Emerging Europe

We analyze the dual role of currency mismatch: as a vehicle that exposes the economy to systemic risk, but also as an engine of growth. We do so at the macro and the micro levels for emerging European economies in recent years. At the aggregate level, we construct a new index of currency mismatch in the banking sector that controls for lending made by banks to unhedged borrowers--i.e., those with no foreign currency income. Using our index, we find that across emerging European economies, increases in currency mismatch are associated with higher growth in tranquil times, but with a greater severity of crisis. These results are also confirmed for a broader sample of emerging economies. On net, after taking into account the crisis period, we find a positive link between currency mismatch and growth. In our firm-level analysis, we find that currency mismatch helps relax borrowing constraints and enhances firms' growth in emerging Europe. These effects are stronger across sets of financially constrained firms--those that are small and are in nontradables sectors.

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Source https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00967419
Author Rancière, Romain, Tornell, Aaron, Vamvakidis, Athanasio
Maintainer CCSD
Last Updated May 5, 2026, 19:53 (UTC)
Created May 5, 2026, 19:53 (UTC)
Identifier halshs-00967419
Language en
Rights https://about.hal.science/hal-authorisation-v1/
contributor Paris School of Economics (PSE) ; Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (UP1)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) ; Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-École nationale des ponts et chaussées (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)
creator Rancière, Romain
date 2010-01-05T00:00:00
harvest_object_id 69657e34-694a-4fd7-a9be-c610aa2cdac4
harvest_source_id 3374d638-d20b-4672-ba96-a23232d55657
harvest_source_title test moissonnage SELUNE
metadata_modified 2025-10-01T00:00:00
set_spec type:UNDEFINED