It is Not Just Confusion! Strategic Uncertainty in an Experimental Asset Market

To what extent is the observed mis-pricing in experimental asset markets caused by strategic uncertainty (SU) and by individual bounded rationality (IBR)? We address this question by comparing subjects initial price forecasts in two market environments - one with six human traders, and the other with one human and five computer traders. We find that both SU and IBR account equally for the median initial forecasts deviation from the fundamental values. The effect of SU is greater for subjects with a perfect score in the Cognitive Reflection Test, and it is not significant for those with low scores.

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Source https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00854513
Author Akiyama, Eizo, Hanaki, Nobuyuki, Ishikawa, Ryuichiro
Maintainer CCSD
Last Updated May 10, 2026, 00:15 (UTC)
Created May 10, 2026, 00:15 (UTC)
Identifier halshs-00854513
Language en
Rights https://about.hal.science/hal-authorisation-v1/
contributor Faculty of Engineering, Information and Systems [Tsukuba] ; Université de Tsukuba = University of Tsukuba
creator Akiyama, Eizo
date 2013-08-10T00:00:00
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harvest_source_id 3374d638-d20b-4672-ba96-a23232d55657
harvest_source_title test moissonnage SELUNE
metadata_modified 2026-01-24T00:00:00
set_spec type:UNDEFINED