Does soft information matter for financial analysts' forecasts? A gravity model approach

We study whether the financial analysts' concern to maintain good relationships with firms' managers in order to preserve their access to 'soft' qualitative information entice them to issue pessimistic or optimistic forecasts. We use a gravity model approach to firmsanalysts relationships and propose a measure of soft information. Our database contains the one-year ahead EPS forecasts issued by 4 648 analysts about 241 French firms (1997-2007). We find that a low (high) pair-effect is associated with a low (high) forecast error. This suggests that pessimism and optimism result from analysts' concern to preserve access to soft information released by managers.

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Source https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00829908
Author Breton, Régis, Galanti, Sébastien, Hurlin, Christophe, Vaubourg, Anne-Gaël
Maintainer CCSD
Last Updated May 10, 2026, 21:16 (UTC)
Created May 10, 2026, 21:16 (UTC)
Identifier halshs-00829908
Language en
Rights https://about.hal.science/hal-authorisation-v1/
contributor Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans [2008-2011] (LEO) ; Université d'Orléans (UO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
creator Breton, Régis
date 2011-12-01T00:00:00
harvest_object_id 1f76f6b5-dc83-4716-b797-1869c1974f31
harvest_source_id 3374d638-d20b-4672-ba96-a23232d55657
harvest_source_title test moissonnage SELUNE
metadata_modified 2025-10-14T00:00:00
set_spec type:UNDEFINED