The Inefficient Markets Hypothesis: Why Financial Markets Do Not Work Well in the Real World

Existing literature continues to be unable to offer a convincing explanation for the volatility of the stochastic discount factor in real world data. Our work provides such an explanation. We do not rely on frictions, market incompleteness or transactions costs of any kind. Instead, we modify a simple stochastic representative agent model by allowing for birth and death and by allowing for heterogeneity in agents' discount factors. We show that these two minor and realistic changes to the timeless Arrow-Debreu paradigm are sufficient to invalidate the implication that competitive financial markets efficiently allocate risk. Our work demonstrates that financial markets, by their very nature, cannot be Pareto efficient, except by chance. Although individuals in our model are rational; markets are not.

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Source https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00796672
Author Farmer, Roger E.A., Nourry, Carine, Venditti, Alain
Maintainer CCSD
Last Updated May 13, 2026, 16:56 (UTC)
Created May 13, 2026, 16:56 (UTC)
Identifier halshs-00796672
Language en
Rights https://about.hal.science/hal-authorisation-v1/
contributor Department of Economics [Los Angeles] ; University of California [Los Angeles] (UCLA) ; University of California (UC)-University of California (UC)
creator Farmer, Roger E.A.
date 2013-02-13T00:00:00
harvest_object_id 46098bdb-c58f-4322-bcba-a295daebd8a0
harvest_source_id 3374d638-d20b-4672-ba96-a23232d55657
harvest_source_title test moissonnage SELUNE
metadata_modified 2026-02-07T00:00:00
set_spec type:UNDEFINED