Estimating the transition matrix of a Markov chain observed at random times

In this paper we develop a statistical estimation technique to recover the transition kernel $P$ of a Markov chain $X=(X_m)_{m \in \mathbb N}$ in presence of censored data. We consider the situation where only a sub-sequence of $X$ is available and the time gaps between the observations are iid random variables. Under the assumption that neither the time gaps nor their distribution are known, we provide an estimation method which applies when some transitions in the initial Markov chain $X$ are known to be unfeasible. A consistent estimator of $P$ is derived in closed form as a solution of a minimization problem. The asymptotic performance of the estimator is then discussed in theory and through numerical simulations.

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Additional Info

Field Value
Source ISSN: 0167-7152
Author Barsotti, Flavia, de Castro, Yohann, Espinasse, Thibault, Rochet, Paul
Maintainer CCSD
Last Updated May 5, 2026, 12:21 (UTC)
Created May 5, 2026, 12:21 (UTC)
Identifier hal-00986360
Language en
Rights https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
contributor Risk Methodologies, Group Financial Risks, Group Risk Management, UniCredit S.p.A ; Risk Methodologies, Group Financial Risks, Group Risk Management, UniCredit S.p.A
creator Barsotti, Flavia
date 2014-11-05T00:00:00
harvest_object_id ea9457c0-fbd8-4e5c-9b48-e0d5fcedafb5
harvest_source_id 3374d638-d20b-4672-ba96-a23232d55657
harvest_source_title test moissonnage SELUNE
metadata_modified 2026-04-23T00:00:00
relation info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/arxiv/1405.0384
set_spec type:ART