Automatic Stabilisation, Discretionary Policy and the Stability Pact

This paper describes recent trends on the efficiency of stabilisers in the European Union. Using both macro evidence on the cyclical sensitivity of budget deficit to economic activity, and micro evidence on the tax and expenditure profiles, we conclude, in agreement with the recent literature, that the importance of automatic stabilisation has decreased. After remarking that this trend is contradictory with the current economic institutions of Europe relying exclusively on automatic stabilisation for the conduct of fiscal policy, we argue that increasing flexibility, one alternative way to reduce cyclical fluctuations, does not seem a viable path. The paper concludes defending the appropriateness of discretionary fiscal policy. We argue by means of a simple model that the theoretical arguments against its use are not conclusive, and we describe a recent stream of literature, based on structural VAR models, that concludes rather robustly for the effectiveness of discretionary fiscal policy in the short and long run.

Data and Resources

Additional Info

Field Value
Source https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-00973049
Author Creel, Jérôme, Saraceno, Francesco
Maintainer CCSD
Last Updated May 5, 2026, 16:55 (UTC)
Created May 5, 2026, 16:55 (UTC)
Identifier hal-00973049
Language en
Rights https://about.hal.science/hal-authorisation-v1/
contributor Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) (OFCE) ; Sciences Po (Sciences Po)
creator Creel, Jérôme
date 2008-06-05T00:00:00
harvest_object_id 9fecaf5f-2833-4222-9dd7-cde42e24808d
harvest_source_id 3374d638-d20b-4672-ba96-a23232d55657
harvest_source_title test moissonnage SELUNE
metadata_modified 2023-06-29T00:00:00
relation info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/hdl/2441/6152
set_spec type:UNDEFINED