Multi-objective Genetic Algorithm Optimization of a Neural Network for Estimating Wind Speed Prediction Intervals

In this work, the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II) is applied to determine the weights of a neural network trained for short-term forecasting of wind speed. More precisely, the neural network is trained to produce the lower and upper bounds of the prediction intervals of wind speed. The objectives driving the search for the optimal values of the neural network weights are the coverage of the prediction intervals (to be maximized) and the width (to be minimized). A real application is shown with reference to hourly wind speed, temperature, relative humidity and pressure data in the region of Regina, Saskatchewan, Canada. Correlation analysis shows that the wind speed has weak dependence on the above mentioned meteorological parameters; hence, only hourly historical wind speed is used as input to a neural network model trained to provide in output the one-hour-ahead prediction of wind speed. The originality of the work lies in proposing a multi-objective framework for estimating wind speed prediction intervals (PIs), optimal both in terms of accuracy (coverage probability) and efficacy (width). In the case study analyzed, a comparison with two single-objective methods has been done and the results show that the PIs produced by NSGA-II compare well with those and are satisfactory in both objectives of high coverage and small width.

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Source https://centralesupelec.hal.science/hal-00864850
Author Ak, Ronay, Li, Yan-Fu, Vitelli, Valeria, Zio, Enrico
Maintainer CCSD
Last Updated May 9, 2026, 15:44 (UTC)
Created May 9, 2026, 15:44 (UTC)
Identifier hal-00864850
Language en
Rights https://about.hal.science/hal-authorisation-v1/
contributor Chaire Sciences des Systèmes et Défis Energétiques EDF/ECP/Supélec (SSEC) ; Ecole Supérieure d'Electricité - SUPELEC (FRANCE)-CentraleSupélec-EDF R&D (EDF R&D) ; EDF – Électricité de France (EDF [E.D.F.])-EDF – Électricité de France (EDF [E.D.F.])
creator Ak, Ronay
date 2013-09-23T00:00:00
harvest_object_id cd3342ea-6e61-4f38-a3cb-ee69fb303e67
harvest_source_id 3374d638-d20b-4672-ba96-a23232d55657
harvest_source_title test moissonnage SELUNE
metadata_modified 2026-03-22T00:00:00
set_spec type:UNDEFINED