In subduction zones, major thrusts called splay faults are thought to slip coseismically during large earthquakes affecting the main plate interface. We propose an analytical condition for the activation of a splay fault based on force balance calculations and suggest thrusting along the splay fault is generally conditioned by the growth of the accretionary wedge, or by the erosion of the hanging wall. In theory, normal slip on the splay fault may occur when the décollement has a very low friction coefficient seaward. Such a low friction also implies an unstable extensional state within the outer wedge. Finite element elasto-plastic calculations with a geometry based on the Nankai Kumano section were performed and confirm that this analytical condition is a valid approximation. Furthermore, localized extension at a shallow level in the splay hanging wall is observed in models for a wide range of friction coefficients (from ∼0 to the value of internal friction coefficient of the rock, here equals to 0.4). The timing of slip established for the splay fault branch drilled on Nankai Kumano transect suggests a phase of concurrent splay and accretionary wedge growth ≈2 Ma to ≈1.5 Ma, followed by a locking of the splay ≈1.3 Ma. Active extension is observed in the hanging wall. This evolution can be explained by the activation of a deeper and weaker décollement, followed by an interruption of accretion. Activation of a splay as a normal fault, as hypothesized in the case of the Tohoku 2011 earthquake, can be achieved only if the friction coefficient on the décollement drops to near zero. We conclude that the tectonic stress state largely determines long-term variations of tightly related splay fault and outer décollement activity and thus influences where and how coseismic rupture ends, but that occurrence of normal slip on a splay fault requires coseismic friction reduction.
