Asymptotic normality of a Sobol index estimator in Gaussian process regression framework

Stochastic simulators such as Monte-Carlo estimators are widely used in science and engineering to study physical systems through their probabilistic representation. Global sensitivity analysis aims to identify the input parameters which have the most important impact on the output. A popular tool to perform global sensitivity analysis is the variance-based method which comes from the Hoeffding-Sobol decomposition. Nevertheless, this method requires an important number of simulations and is often unfeasible under reasonable time constraint. Therefore, an approximation of the input/output relation of the code is built with a Gaussian process regression model. This paper provides conditions which ensure the asymptotic normality of a Sobol's index estimator evaluated through this surrogate model. This result allows for building asymptotic confidence intervals for the considered Sobol index estimator. The presented method is successfully applied on an academic example on the heat equation.

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Field Value
Source https://hal.science/hal-00828596
Author Le Gratiet, Loic
Maintainer CCSD
Last Updated May 10, 2026, 22:28 (UTC)
Created May 10, 2026, 22:28 (UTC)
Identifier hal-00828596
Language en
Rights https://about.hal.science/hal-authorisation-v1/
contributor Laboratoire de Probabilités et Modèles Aléatoires (LPMA) ; Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
creator Le Gratiet, Loic
date 2013-05-31T00:00:00
harvest_object_id 1c3ee6b6-b429-4a7d-88e4-43e404aa60a7
harvest_source_id 3374d638-d20b-4672-ba96-a23232d55657
harvest_source_title test moissonnage SELUNE
metadata_modified 2026-04-02T00:00:00
relation info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/arxiv/1305.7406
set_spec type:UNDEFINED