Reliability sensitivity analysis based on probability distribution perturbation with application to CO2 storage

The objective of reliability sensitivity analysis is to determine input variables that mostly contribute to the variability of the failure probability. In this paper, we study a recently introduced method for the reliability sensitivity analysis based on a perturbation of the original probability distribution of the input variables. The objective is to determine the most influential input variables and to analyze their impact on the failure probability. We propose a moment independent sensitivity measure that is based on a perturbation of the original probability density independently for each input variable. The variables providing the highest variation of the original failure probability are settled to be more influential. These variables will need a proper characterization in terms of uncertainty. The method is intended to work in applications involving a computationally expensive simulation code for evaluating the failure probability such as the CO2 storage risk analysis. An application of the method to a synthetic CO2 storage case study is provided together with some analytical examples

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Source https://hal.science/hal-00806560
Author Sergienko, Ekaterina, Lemaître, Paul, Arnaud, Aurélie, Busby, Daniel, Gamboa, Fabrice
Maintainer CCSD
Last Updated May 11, 2026, 19:48 (UTC)
Created May 11, 2026, 19:48 (UTC)
Identifier hal-00806560
Language en
Rights https://about.hal.science/hal-authorisation-v1/
contributor Méthodes d'Analyse Stochastique des Codes et Traitements Numériques (GdR MASCOT-NUM) ; Institut National des Sciences Mathématiques et de leurs Interactions - CNRS Mathématiques (INSMI-CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
creator Sergienko, Ekaterina
date 2012-01-15T00:00:00
harvest_object_id 1bfe71b6-599b-487b-a4e1-a71df7977f4d
harvest_source_id 3374d638-d20b-4672-ba96-a23232d55657
harvest_source_title test moissonnage SELUNE
metadata_modified 2026-04-02T00:00:00
relation info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/arxiv/1304.0423
set_spec type:UNDEFINED