Conditional Autoregressive Hilbertian processes

When considering the problem of forecasting a continuous-time stochastic process over an entire time-interval in terms of its recent past, the notion of Autoregressive Hilbert space processes (ARH) arises. This model can be seen as a generalization of the classical autoregressive processes to Hilbert space valued random variables. Its estimation presents several challenges that were addressed by many authors in recent years. In this paper, we propose an extension based on this model by introducing a conditioning process on the arh. In this way, we are aiming a double objective. First, the intrinsic linearity of arh is overwhelm. Second, we allow the introduction of exogenous covariates on this function- valued time series model. We begin defining a new kind of processes that we call Conditional arh. We then propose estimators for the infinite dimensional parameters associated to such processes. Using two classes of predictors defined within the arh framework, we extend these to our case. Consistency results are provided as well as a real data application related to electricity load forecasting.

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Source https://hal.science/hal-00788249
Author Cugliari, Jairo
Maintainer CCSD
Last Updated May 14, 2026, 12:11 (UTC)
Created May 14, 2026, 12:11 (UTC)
Identifier hal-00788249
Language en
Rights https://about.hal.science/hal-authorisation-v1/
contributor Model selection in statistical learning (SELECT) ; Laboratoire de Mathématiques d'Orsay (LMO) ; Université Paris-Sud - Paris 11 (UP11)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris-Sud - Paris 11 (UP11)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre Inria de Saclay ; Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)
creator Cugliari, Jairo
date 2013-02-14T00:00:00
harvest_object_id dcca2616-522c-4182-8e46-0fc7457fe427
harvest_source_id 3374d638-d20b-4672-ba96-a23232d55657
harvest_source_title test moissonnage SELUNE
metadata_modified 2025-02-26T00:00:00
relation info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/arxiv/1302.3488
set_spec type:UNDEFINED