Lag length identification for VAR models with non-constant variance

The identification of the lag length for vector autoregressive models by mean of Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Partial Autoregressive and Correlation Matrices (PAM and PCM hereafter) is studied in the framework of processes with time varying variance. It is highlighted that the use of the standard tools are not justified in such a case. As a consequence we propose an adaptive AIC which is robust to the presence of unconditional heteroscedasticity. Corrected confidence bounds are proposed for the usual PAM and PCM obtained from the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation. The volatility structure of the innovations is used to develop adaptive PAM and PCM. We underline that the adaptive PAM and PCM are more accurate than the OLS PAM and PCM for identifying the lag length of the autoregressive models. Monte Carlo experiments show that the adaptive $AIC$ have a greater ability to select the correct autoregressive order than the standard AIC. An illustrative application using US international finance data is presented.

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Source https://hal.science/hal-00771327
Author Raïssi, Hamdi
Maintainer CCSD
Last Updated May 15, 2026, 07:06 (UTC)
Created May 15, 2026, 07:06 (UTC)
Identifier hal-00771327
Language en
contributor Institut de Recherche Mathématique de Rennes (IRMAR) ; Université de Rennes (UR)-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - Rennes (INSA Rennes) ; Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-École normale supérieure - Rennes (ENS Rennes)-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-INSTITUT AGRO Agrocampus Ouest ; Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)
creator Raïssi, Hamdi
date 2012-04-03T00:00:00
harvest_object_id 58115be4-7f99-4867-9294-d80219fae691
harvest_source_id 3374d638-d20b-4672-ba96-a23232d55657
harvest_source_title test moissonnage SELUNE
metadata_modified 2025-04-01T00:00:00
relation info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/arxiv/1204.0757
set_spec type:UNDEFINED