Prévision d'un processus à valeurs fonctionnelles en présence de non stationnarités. Application à la consommation d'électricité.

We study here the problem of predicting a functional valued stochastic process. We first explore the model proposed by Antoniadis et al. (2006) in the context of a practical application -the french electrical power demand- where the hypothesis of stationarity may fail. The departure from stationarity is twofold: an evolving mean level and the existence of groups that may be seen as classes of stationarity. We explore some corrections that enhance the prediction performance. The corrections aim to take into account the presence of these nonstationary features. In particular, to handle the existence of groups, we constraint the model to use only the data that belongs to the same group of the last available data. If one knows the grouping, a simple post-treatment suffices to obtain better prediction performances.

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Additional Info

Field Value
Source https://inria.hal.science/hal-00703570
Author Antoniadis, Anestis, Brosat, Xavier, Cugliari, Jairo, Poggi, Jean-Michel
Maintainer CCSD
Last Updated May 16, 2026, 07:49 (UTC)
Created May 16, 2026, 07:49 (UTC)
Identifier Report N°: RR-7982
Language fr
Rights https://about.hal.science/hal-authorisation-v1/
contributor Statistique Apprentissage Machine (SAM) ; Laboratoire Jean Kuntzmann (LJK) ; Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 (UPMF)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 (UPMF)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
creator Antoniadis, Anestis
date 2012-06-03T00:00:00
harvest_object_id afe9a598-a9cb-4098-b3e8-306a3a4a567e
harvest_source_id 3374d638-d20b-4672-ba96-a23232d55657
harvest_source_title test moissonnage SELUNE
metadata_modified 2025-12-18T00:00:00
set_spec type:REPORT