Statistical emulation of a tsunami model for sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification

Due to the catastrophic consequences of tsunamis, early warnings need to be issued quickly in order to mitigate the hazard. Additionally, there is a need to represent the uncertainty in the predictions of tsunami characteristics corresponding to the uncertain trigger features (e.g. either position, shape and speed of a landslide, or sea floor deformation associated with an earthquake). Unfortunately, computer models are expensive to run. This leads to significant delays in predictions and makes the uncertainty quantification impractical. Statistical emulators run almost instantaneously and may represent well the outputs of the computer model. In this paper, we use the Outer Product Emulator to build a fast statistical surrogate of a landslide-generated tsunami computer model. This Bayesian framework enables us to build the emulator by combining prior knowledge of the computer model properties with a few carefully chosen model evaluations. The good performance of the emulator is validated using the Leave-One-Out method.

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Additional Info

Field Value
Source https://hal.science/hal-00683434
Author Sarri, Andria, Guillas, Serge, Dias, Frédéric
Maintainer CCSD
Last Updated May 23, 2026, 06:34 (UTC)
Created May 23, 2026, 06:34 (UTC)
Identifier hal-00683434
Language en
Rights https://about.hal.science/hal-authorisation-v1/
contributor UCL Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction ; University College London [UCL] (UCL)
creator Sarri, Andria
date 2012-03-28T00:00:00
harvest_object_id af29dbce-1c45-44a1-9a2e-1f5f1385ef97
harvest_source_id 3374d638-d20b-4672-ba96-a23232d55657
harvest_source_title test moissonnage SELUNE
metadata_modified 2026-02-07T00:00:00
set_spec type:UNDEFINED