The determinants of recidivism among ex-prisoners: a survival analysis on French data
type: Dataset
description: This article explores the main determinants of the hazard of recidivism among ex-prisoners. We use a nationally-representative sample of prisoners released in 1996-1997 in France, drawn from a 5-year follow-up survey run by the French correctional administration. We estimate semiparametric duration models which deal with violations of the proportional hazards hypothesis. Our results confirm the importance of gender, age, nationality, access to employment and prior convictions on recidivism within five years after release from prison. We also find significant differences in hazards of recidivism by type of initial offense, penal status at entry, and type of release (early release under parole, etc.), while controlling for prison fixed effects. Finally, our study casts doubt on the influence of certain variables (marital status at entry, education, homelessness) and on the effectiveness of semi-liberté as a way to prevent recidivism.
landing page: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00822847
keyword: duration-models
keyword: economics-of-crime
keyword: infoeu-reposemanticspreprint
keyword: jel-c---mathematical-and-quantitative-methodscc4---econometric-and-statistical-methods--special
keyword: preprints-working-papers-
keyword: recidivism
keyword: shsecohumanities-and-social-scienceseconomics-and-finance
issued: 2026-05-11T03:26:05.120613
modified: 2026-05-11T03:26:05.120618
language: en
contact point: Organization
  fn: CCSD

test_moissonnage_selune
type: Agent

The determinants of recidivism among ex-prisoners: a survival analysis on French data
type: Distribution
format: HTML
access URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00822847
issued: 2026-05-11T03:26:05.122199
modified: 2026-05-11T03:26:05.111381