ISI Document Delivery No.: 174OX Times Cited: 2 Cited Reference Count: 49 Cited References: [Anonymous], 2011, CLIM CHANG PAC SCI A, V1 Aqorau T., 2009, International Journal of Marine and Coastal Law, V24, P557, DOI 10.1163/157180809X455647 Bell JD, 2009, MAR POLICY, V33, P64, DOI 10.1016/j.marpol.2008.04.002 Bell J.D., 2011, VULNERABILITY TROPIC Brown J. R., 2010, J CLIMATE, V24, P1565 Brown JN, 2013, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V119, P147, DOI 10.1007/s10584-012-0603-5 Bruno J. F., 2007, PLOS ONE, V2, P1 Cheung WWL, 2013, NAT CLIM CHANGE, V3, P254, DOI 10.1038/NCLIMATE1691 Cia W., 2012, NATURE, V488, P365 Clapcott JE, 2012, FRESHWATER BIOL, V57, P74, DOI 10.1111/j.1365-2427.2011.02696.x Cochrane KL, 2011, FISH FISH, V12, P275, DOI 10.1111/j.1467-2979.2010.00392.x Collins M, 2010, NAT GEOSCI, V3, P391, DOI 10.1038/NGEO868 Cravatte S, 2009, CLIM DYNAM, V33, P565, DOI 10.1007/s00382-009-0526-7 Della Patrona L, 2011, AQUACULT ENV INTERAC, V2, P27, DOI 10.3354/aei00028 Durack PJ, 2012, SCIENCE, V336, P455, DOI 10.1126/science.1212222 Ellison JC, 2009, WETL ECOL MANAG, V17, P169, DOI 10.1007/s11273-008-9097-3 ElSayed AFM, 2006, TILAPIA CULTURE, P1, DOI 10.1079/9780851990149.0001 Ganachaud A, 2013, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V119, P163, DOI 10.1007/s10584-012-0631-1 Gillett R., 2010, FUTURE PACIFIC ISLAN Gillett R, 2009, FISHERIES EC PACIFIC Grafton RQ, 2010, MAR POLICY, V34, P606, DOI 10.1016/j.marpol.2009.11.011 Hoegh-Guldberg O, 2007, SCIENCE, V318, P1737, DOI 10.1126/science.1152509 Karnauskas KB, 2012, NAT CLIM CHANGE, V2, P530, DOI 10.1038/NCLIMATE1499 Knecht R. W., 1998, INTEGRATED COASTAL O Lehodey P, 2008, PROG OCEANOGR, V78, P304, DOI 10.1016/j.pocean.2008.06.004 Lehodey P, 2013, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V119, P95, DOI 10.1007/s10584-012-0595-1 Lehodey P, 1997, NATURE, V389, P715, DOI 10.1038/39575 Longhurst A, 2006, ECOLOGICAL GEOGRAPHY Vermeer M, 2009, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V106, P21527, DOI 10.1073/pnas.0907765106 Meehl GA, 2007, B AM METEOROL SOC, V88, P1383, DOI 10.1175/BAMS-88-9-1383 Murawski SA, 2011, ICES J MAR SCI, V68, P1368, DOI 10.1093/icesjms/fsr086 Nakicenovic N., 2000, SPECIAL REPORT EMISS Newton K., 2007, CURR BIOL, V17, P1 Nilsson GE, 2012, NAT CLIM CHANGE, V2, P201, DOI [10.1038/NCLIMATE1352, 10.1038/nclimate1352] Orr JC, 2005, NATURE, V437, P681, DOI 10.1038/nature04095 Palmer MA, 2008, FRONT ECOL ENVIRON, V6, P81, DOI 10.1890/060148 Parker LM, 2011, MAR BIOL, V158, P689, DOI 10.1007/s00227-010-1592-4 Patra RW, 2007, ENVIRON TOXICOL CHEM, V26, P1454, DOI 10.1897/06-156R1.1 Pinca S., 2010, REGIONAL ASSESSMENT Pomeroy RS, 2011, SMALL-SCALE FISHERIES MANAGEMENT: FRAMEWORKS AND APPROACHES FOR THE DEVELOPING WORLD, P1, DOI 10.1079/9781845936075.0000 Ponia B., 2010, REV AQUACULTURE PACI Ricel JC, 2011, ICES J MAR SCI, V68, P1343, DOI 10.1093/icesjms/fsr041 Sen Gupta A, 2012, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V39, DOI 10.1029/2012GL051447 Smith P. T., 2007, ACIAR MONOGRAPH, V125 Solomon S., 2007, IPCC CLIMATE CHANGE Southgate PC, 2008, PEARL OYSTER, P1 Sunda WG, 1997, NATURE, V390, P389, DOI 10.1038/37093 Welladsen HM, 2010, MOLLUSCAN RES, V30, P125 Xie SP, 2010, J CLIMATE, V23, P966, DOI 10.1175/2009JCLI3329.1 Bell, Johann D. Ganachaud, Alexandre Gehrke, Peter C. Griffiths, Shane P. Hobday, Alistair J. Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove Johnson, Johanna E. Le Borgne, Robert Lehodey, Patrick Lough, Janice M. Matear, Richard J. Pickering, Timothy D. Pratchett, Morgan S. Sen Gupta, Alex Senina, Inna Waycott, Michelle Lough, Janice/L-1682-2013; Hobday, Alistair/A-1460-2012; Ganachaud, Alexandre/B-7556-2013 AusAID as part of Australia's International Climate Change Adaptation Initiative We thank the modelling groups at the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP) Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM), for their roles in making available the WCRP CMIP3 multi-model data set. Their work, and the support provided for these data sets by the Office of Science, US Department of Energy, enabled us to assess the projected effects of climate change on surface climate and the tropical Pacific Ocean. We also thank the many colleagues who assisted us to make and present the analyses summarized in this article. Financial support for this project was provided by AusAID as part of Australia's International Climate Change Adaptation Initiative. 2 NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP LONDON NAT CLIM CHANGE
Mixed responses of tropical Pacific fisheries and aquaculture to climate change