@prefix dcat: <http://www.w3.org/ns/dcat#> .
@prefix dct: <http://purl.org/dc/terms/> .
@prefix foaf: <http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/> .
@prefix vcard: <http://www.w3.org/2006/vcard/ns#> .
@prefix xsd: <http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#> .

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    dct:description """
              This paper presents a new leading indicator of UK output growth. The aim of the indicator is to forecast quarterly real GDP growth over a two-quarter horizon, using latest available information, mainly on a monthly basis, such as survey data, or on a daily basis, such as financial data (interest rates and exchange rates) and raw materials prices. We adopt a model where GDP growth relies on the Index of Production, the Retail Sales Index, survey data in the manufacturing sector, retail and wholesale trade, financial services and short-term interest rates. The indicator is built on a two-step regression-based approach. First, we estimate an equation for the quarterly GDP growth rate based on coincident and leading series. Second, we estimate monthly and/or quarterly equations which will be used to forecast the coincident and leading series showing a lead of less than six months. This enables us to forecast GDP growth for the current and coming quarters. We check that the indicator would have produced a satisfactory outcome over the last four years.
            """ ;
    dct:identifier "hal-00972860" ;
    dct:issued "2026-05-05T17:02:34.779329"^^xsd:dateTime ;
    dct:language "fr" ;
    dct:modified "2026-05-05T17:02:34.779333"^^xsd:dateTime ;
    dct:publisher <https://rec.harvest-normandie.data4citizen.com/organization/cce9db95-46d9-4dc2-84b6-764215d0a002> ;
    dct:title "A new leading indicator of UK quarterly GDP growth" ;
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            vcard:fn "CCSD" ] ;
    dcat:distribution <https://rec.harvest-normandie.data4citizen.com/dataset/oai-hal-hal-00972860v1/resource/50ed9763-78b6-49cb-84bc-2752baf1d5b3> ;
    dcat:keyword "infoeu-reposemanticspreprint",
        "preprints-working-papers-",
        "shsecohumanities-and-social-scienceseconomics-and-finance" ;
    dcat:landingPage <https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-00972860> .

<https://rec.harvest-normandie.data4citizen.com/dataset/oai-hal-hal-00972860v1/resource/50ed9763-78b6-49cb-84bc-2752baf1d5b3> a dcat:Distribution ;
    dct:format "HTML" ;
    dct:issued "2026-05-05T17:02:34.780753"^^xsd:dateTime ;
    dct:modified "2026-05-05T17:02:34.774719"^^xsd:dateTime ;
    dct:title "A new leading indicator of UK quarterly GDP growth" ;
    dcat:accessURL <https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-00972860> .

<https://rec.harvest-normandie.data4citizen.com/organization/cce9db95-46d9-4dc2-84b6-764215d0a002> a foaf:Agent ;
    foaf:name "test_moissonnage_selune" .

<https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-00972860> a foaf:Document .