After an uninterrupted growth of several decades, average car use per adult has levelled off in France from the early 2000’s, and has even been decreasing in the largest conurbations. This trend is not specific to France but common to all industrialized countries. It raises several key issues: about the extension of this phenomenon (specific to some residential zones and/or social groups or of a general nature), its main driving forces, and the most likely scenarios about future car use. We will bring new elements to this debate, founded on data drawn from the French Household Continuous Surveys (ECAM’s) and Car Fleet Survey (ParcAuto), covering the entire period from the mid 70’s until today. Thanks to time-series by standard of living and zone of residence, and an age-cohort analysis, we will show that the inflexion in car use is a general trend, resulting from a decline of car use in all generations and age groups, compensated by the follow-up of ever-more car-dependent cohorts. The most likely explanation is that the decline of car use was mainly driven by long-lasting degraded economic conditions, especially the strong increase of fuel prices, that may have induced more durable shifts in behaviours, in particular among inhabitants of metropolitan areas who are less car-dependent. This trend is strengthened as car use was already close to saturation in the highest income groups and in the most recent cohorts. By designing and estimating an age-cohort-period model, we will evaluate the assumption of a durable transformation in travel patterns during the 2000’s, and the influence of the zone of residence on car use elasticities, in relation with the issues of car dependency and vulnerability of households living in low-density areas.
La stagnation de l’usage de la voiture en France dans les années 2000 : une analyse par génération et zone de résidence