What cost for photovoltaic modules in 2020? Lessons from experience curve models
type: Dataset
description: Except in few locations, photovoltaic generated electricity remains considerably more expensive than conventional sources. It is however expected that innovation and learning-bydoing will lead to drastic cuts in production cost in the near future. The goal of this paper is to predict the cost of PV modules out to 2020 using experience curve models, and to draw implications about the cost of PV electricity. Using annual data on photovoltaic module prices, cumulative production, R&D knowledge stock and input prices for silicon and silver over the period 1990 - 2011, we identify a experience curve model which minimizes the difference between predicted and actual module prices. This model predicts a 67% decrease of module price from 2011 to 2020. This rate implies that the cost of PV generated electricity will reach that of conventional electricity by 2020 in the sunniest countries with annual solar irradiation of 2000 kWh/year or more, such as California, Italy, and Spain.
issued: 2026-05-11T00:13:16.468000
language: en
modified: 2026-05-11T00:13:16.468004
contact point: Organization
  fn: CCSD
keyword: cost-prediction
keyword: infoeu-reposemanticspreprint
keyword: learning-curve
keyword: preprints-working-papers-
keyword: shsecohumanities-and-social-scienceseconomics-and-finance
keyword: solar-photovoltaic-energy
landing page: https://minesparis-psl.hal.science/hal-00805668

What cost for photovoltaic modules in 2020? Lessons from experience curve models
type: Distribution
format: HTML
issued: 2026-05-11T00:13:16.470579
modified: 2026-05-11T00:13:16.460704
access URL: https://minesparis-psl.hal.science/hal-00805668

test_moissonnage_selune
type: Agent